IDTechEx forecasts US$154bn EV cell materials market

The global market for electric vehicle battery cell materials is forecast to reach US$154 billion by 2036, with material demand exceeding 17.9 million tonnes, according to a new report by analyst firm IDTechEx. The report, “Materials for Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs 2026-2036: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts,” maps demand across cell chemistries and projects the impact of next-generation technologies on material consumption.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-based chemistries, including nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and nickel cobalt aluminium (NCA), currently dominate the electric vehicle (EV) battery market. LFP holds a strong position in China and is gaining share in North America and Europe as automakers target lower-cost mass-market applications, while NMC retains relevance in premium segments due to its higher energy density. IDTechEx estimates that raw material costs for both chemistries reached historic lows in 2025, at US$34/kW/h for LFP and US$39/kW/h for NMC 811.

Raw material price volatility remains a significant factor, with lithium prices having spiked to US$80,000 per tonne in 2022-2023 before falling to US$13,000 in 2025, and rising again in 2026 following the shutdown of major Chinese mines. Cobalt prices also spiked in 2025 following a temporary export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s primary supplier.

Looking ahead, IDTechEx identifies silicon anodes, solid-state electrolytes, advanced cathodes based on lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) and related chemistries, and lithium metal anodes as the principal technologies likely to reshape cell material demand before the end of the next decade.

Source: IDTechEx