Automotive World lowers global light vehicle forecast

Global light vehicle sales are now forecast to slip to around 89.06 million in 2026, down 0.7% year-on-year and 0.4pts below February estimates.

China is the most significant drag factor: 2026 sales are expected to fall to 25.9 million, down 2.6%. February was an especially weak month, with demand down 25% due to fewer selling days, expiring subsidies and policy shifts.

North American (US & Canada) sales are forecast to drop 2.0% to 17.9 million, with affordability under pressure from high prices and financing strain. Notably, a record 30.5% of trade-ins were in negative equity during March.

Meanwhile, there are some signs of resilience. Europe (EU+EFTA+UK) is expected to grow 1.5% to 15.3 million, Japan by 2.0% to 4.51 million, and India by 3.0% to 5.11 million. The latter’s recent success included a 30% retail sales boost in February despite a shorter selling month.

Tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and war in the Middle East loom over the automotive industry. Read Automotive World’s latest light vehicle sales forecast to find out how the top-20 markets are performing.