Europe’s heavy-duty incumbents face a fight for their lives

More than half a dozen Chinese electric truck manufacturers plan to enter European heavy truck sales in 2026, according to Reuters sleuthing, including BYD, Geely’s Farizon, Sany, Sinotruk, and startups Windrose and SuperPanther. Chinese truckmakers expect to price their trucks up to 30% below the European average of €320,000 (US$380,000), drawing on China’s lower-cost labour and battery supply chain for a critical advantage.

Industry analysts and European fleet operators corroborated to Reuters that Chinese electric drivetrain and battery technology are solidly three years ahead of European equivalents—a development that surprised incumbents who had assumed the industry’s typical seven-year development cycle would give them more time. Last year, Chinese startup Windrose made waves in Europe with its low-cost, high-performance model, the Global E700 truck, which it developed from scratch to European regulatory approval in three years on a budget of just US$99m. The truck offers a 670 km range, 35-minute charging, and a centre-seat cab with sleeper—and it does it at €250,000.

Volvo Group and Mercedes-Benz Trucks cumulatively hold a dominant share of Europe’s e-truck market at 25% and 35% respectively. However, that incumbency rests primarily on trusted service networks and fleet loyalty built over decades—far more so than it does any clear technological advantage on electrification. Meanwhile, Xiaomi-backed SuperPanther and Sany have signed agreements with Germany’s Alltrucks, gaining immediate access to approximately 650 service centres across the continent. BYD will produce trucks at its existing bus factory in Hungary; SuperPanther will assemble at a former MAN facility in Austria operated by Steyr Automotive.

The local manufacturing play holds strategic significance. By assembling in Hungary and Austria, Chinese brands substantially reduce their EU tariff exposure and weaken the ‘foreign import’ objection that has slowed down penetration in the passenger car segment. The Industrial Accelerator Act’s local content provisions, if enacted, could yet complicate this—but the Chinese entry strategy appears designed with exactly that regulatory risk in mind.

European incumbents are lobbying the European Commission for policy support, with ACEA and E-Mobility Europe pressing for lower highway tolls for zero-emission trucks, fleet electrification mandates, and potential links between electric truck subsidies and European production. The urgency is readily quantifiable: a Dutch electric truck subsidy programme launched in January totalling US$95m was oversubscribed in a single day, indicating that fleet demand exists and that price, not appetite, is the primary constraint. 

Among Europe’s truckmakers, Scania’s response is arguably the most noteworthy. The Traton-owned brand invested €2bn in a new factory near Shanghai in October, explicitly to “beat [the Chinese] in their home market”. For the truckmaker, it will serve as a critical opportunity to acquire R&D capability and manufacturing know-how. The plant will initially produce diesel trucks, with electrified models set to follow. “That is their biggest advantage—how they scale quickly from innovation to a really industrial state,” Scania Chief Executive Christian Levin told Reuters. 

Electric trucks represented 4.2% of EU truck sales in 2025, up from 2.3% in 2024, but remain held back by prices roughly triple those of diesel equivalents. Chinese e-truck market share, by contrast, sat at 29% last year. CATL has projected that it could surpass 50% by 2030. 

Not all of the European trucking sector’s woes can be attributed to China, however: Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has repeatedly indicated plans to bring the Semi heavy truck to Europe following its North American launch. With a range exceeding 800 km and 30-minute charging to 70%, it outperforms both European and Chinese rivals on headline specs. However, mass production only began in Nevada this year, and the absence of a sleeper cab makes it non-compliant with European driver rest regulations for long-haul operations.