Global LV forecast lowered, but some markets still upbeat

The forecast for light vehicle (LV) sales globally continues to deteriorate, with Automotive World revising its estimate down 0.5pts. This brings the full-year total to 88.6 million units, or a 1.1% decline from the previous year.

China continues to see a sharp cooling in domestic demand following the expiry of subsidies at the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the North American market is battered by high vehicle prices, a straining auto finance sector, and the lingering effects of US tariffs.

Despite the gloomier outlook, Europe and India have gathered momentum for a variety of market-specific reasons. However, it is unlikely that any country or region will remain economically unaffected by the war in the Middle East, and further downward revisions to the forecast are likely while the conflict continues. Japan, for example, has seen the sharpest decline in consumer sentiment since COVID amid rising energy prices.

For country-specific data across the top 20 automotive markets, read Automotive World’s latest global LV sales forecast.