Nissan swings to profit forecast, albeit on one-time gains

Nissan Motor has revised its forecast for the fiscal year ended March 2026 towards a modest operating profit of JP¥50bn (US$314m), reversing an earlier projection of a JP¥60bn loss. The automaker attributed the turnaround primarily to a one-time benefit arising from the softening of US emissions regulations, as well as ongoing restructuring efforts and favourable foreign exchange movements.

Revenue guidance was lifted by JP¥100bn to JP¥12tr, while the net loss forecast improved by the same margin to JP¥550bn. These figures mark a deterioration against FY2025, wherein Nissan posted revenue of JP¥12.6tr and an operating profit of JP¥69.8bn. However, it did also posted a net loss of JP¥660.1bn, underscoring how much ground the automaker needs to recover through restructuring.

The FY2026 operating profit revision appears meaningful signal at first glance, but it may not be a sign of sustainable core improvement. The US emissions gain is a non-recurring benefit, and a global sales decline of 4.2% to 3.1 million units gives little reason to be optimistic about a more durable turnaround. 

Nissan’s native market, Japan, was among the worst performers in 2025: a 13.5% year-on-year decline. Surprisingly, China offered a partial offset, with March sales rising 23%—a recovery Nissan has attributed in part to the N7 sedan. The model was developed specifically for the mainland market to compete against local electric vehicle (EV) brands. Rumours have circulated that Nissan is considering launching the N7 in Japan given the relative lack of locally-made EVs in its model lineup. 

Other global automakers have struggled significantly against the tide of local competition in China—Audi being one of the more noteworthy recent examples—but Nissan appears to be digging its heels in. The automaker is targeting one million vehicle sales in the country by 2030 and eyeing it as a manufacturing and research hub for global markets. 

President and Chief Executive Ivan Espinosa, who took charge in April 2025, has broadly anchored Nissan’s recovery efforts to the so-called ‘Re:Nissan’ restructuring plan. The programme involves closing seven of the automaker’s 17 global factories, cutting approximately 20,000 jobs—around 15% of the total workforce—and slimming the model lineup from 61 variants down to 45, with resources redirected toward higher-volume, higher-margin families including the Rogue and X-Trail. 

Nissan also sold off its Yokohama headquarters in November 2025 and leased it back to generate liquidity, reassigning 3,000 engineers specifically to cost-reduction work. Merger discussions between it, Honda and Mitsubishi Motors fell apart in February 2025 after it became apparent that Nissan would effectively become a Honda subsidiary under the arrangement. Espinosa has since framed Re:Nissan as a self-contained survival strategy, with automotive free cash flow expected to turn positive in the second half of fiscal year 2027.

Nissan’s full-year results are scheduled for release on 13 May 2026.